The media will be saturated in the coming days with assessments of 2009 and predictions for 2010. This past year created anxiety for far too many people and frankly I’m not interested in reliving any substantial portion of it. When it comes to predictions, I learned long ago that my skills lie elsewhere (which is the reason that I don’t participate in the office football pool). So, rather than reminisce or prognosticate, let’s just say that I’m making a few observations that seem worthy of consideration.
source: desktoprating.com
- The American economy still drives the global economy – as evidenced last year, when the US economy slows down the global economy follows. It stands to reason, then, that when our economy picks up the global economy will do likewise. However, our economy is dependent upon consumer purchasing, which is a direct byproduct of solid employment. Even Washington has finally figured this out, which is the reason for so many recent job summits in the Beltway. George Erickcek, an economist with the Upjohn Institute, recently predicted that the economic recovery would not fully kick into gear until 2011 due to slow job recovery. This may seem all bad, however…
- Companies are recovering their confidence – in my role, I’m fortunate to speak with many different people in leadership roles in various industries. In the past 3 months, many of them have been stating that it’s “starting to feel better out there”. In most cases, “out there” is defined as industries or clients that appear to be willing to loosen their stranglehold on budgets and begin investing in their companies once again. Much of this “feel” is attitudinal. A common perspective that I hear is, “We made it through the toughest part, I guess we can relax and start looking ahead.” This sentiment will allow companies/employers to begin exploring new markets and new revenue sources again. As the current employment base gets too busy to handle the surging workload, new jobs will be created. To a great extent, then, the economic recovery is also dependent upon corporate leaders to stop focusing on the protection of short-term profits and instead look for long-term revenue generating opportunities.
- The change in consumer habits will change once again – any expert on consumer behavior will explain that since the emergence of the Baby Boomer generation, American buying habits have been based on a demand for immediate gratification. Boomers and Millenials are different in many ways, but they share a common case of selective amnesia when it comes to spending. Gen Xers tend to be a bit more cautious and cynical in their buying habits, based upon a study presented at a recent MMGMA conference. This essentially means that, while cost cutting and frugality may have seen a resurgence in the past two years, consumer spending will rebound as quickly as the Boomers and Millenials can be assured that they can pay off their credit card balances sometime within the next year or two (yes, I’m the worst of both worlds, a cynical Baby Boomer).
So those are a few observations from my point of view. Care to share some of yours?
Mike
2 Comments
A common perspective that I hear is, “We made it through the toughest part, I guess we can relax and start looking ahead.”
It’s a welcome feeling, but I’m not certain that “relax” is the best term. “Re-group,” perhaps, or “re-tool,” but not any expression that leads us – and certainly not our customers – back into the apathy of the 80s and 90s. We’ve learned too much, worked too hard and paid too many dues to “relax.”
I’m genuinely excited about the future of marketing. I’m looking forward, hoping to keep learning the skills I need to remain competitive in a field now seemingly dominated by very smart, precocious kids. There may be some old skills I can share with them as well.
But no relaxing. I’m living the advice of Satchel Paige, “Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.”
Good thoughts, Bob. I debated the term “relax” with many of those same considerations in mind as I wrote the post. It seems that there is less anxiety among many, especially as compared to earlier this year. Let’s hope that trend continues.
And yes, seasoned veterans such as the two of us can actually teach some of these younger marketeers a few things despite the changing nature of our industry. Experience still provides us with a unique point of view.